Turkey's projected decline in population to approximately 38 million people by the year 2100, setting off alarm bells for a demographic emergency
Turkey Faces Demographic Challenge Amidst Declining Birth Rates and Aging Population
Turkey is currently grappling with a significant demographic shift, characterized by falling birth rates and a rapidly aging population. The total fertility rate has dropped from 3.11 children per woman in 1990 to 1.48 in 2024, significantly below the 2.1 needed to maintain population size[1].
According to recent data, 55 provinces in Turkey now have fertility rates below 1.5 children per woman, with the northern and western regions particularly affected[2]. This trend is reflected in the population age structure, with 21.8% of people under 15, 68.2% aged 15-64, and 10% aged 65 and older[2].
In response to these challenges, Turkish authorities have introduced a series of policies aimed at incentivizing higher birth rates and supporting families. These measures include:
- Legal rights to part-time work for new parents.
- Efforts to promote paternal involvement in childcare and reduce the burden traditionally placed on women.
- Measures to balance family responsibilities between mothers and fathers[1].
Officials stress the need for holistic, inclusive solutions to address these demographic challenges[1]. The "Family and Population Decade" is a strategic plan for 2026-2035, designed to monitor trends and implement inter-ministerial solutions to halt the decline in Turkey's population[3].
Additionally, the "Family and Youth Fund" was launched in January 2025, offering a financial support package of ₺150,000 (approximately $3,700) to first-time marrying couples aged 18-29[3].
Family and Social Services Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas described the low fertility rate as reaching an "alarm level"[4]. The government's revised birth allowance program provides a one-time payment of ₺5,000 (approximately $125) for the first child, monthly support of ₺1,500 (approximately $38) for second children until age five, and ₺5,000 per month for third children[4].
Despite these efforts, Turkey continues to face negative net migration trends, with more people leaving the country than entering, further compounding demographic pressures[4]. The government's measures have already drawn nearly 170,000 applications for the financial incentives[4].
As Turkey's population is projected to significantly drop, reaching 38 million (UN estimate) to 54 million (Turkish Statistical Institute estimate) by 2100[1], addressing these demographic challenges is crucial for the country's long-term social and economic stability.
[1] "Turkey's declining population: causes and consequences" (2023), TRT World Research Centre. [2] "Population Structure of Turkey" (2024), Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). [3] "Family and Population Decade" (2026-2035), Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Services. [4] "Turkey's birth allowance program draws 170,000 applications" (2023), Anadolu Agency.
- The government in Turkiye is taking action to address a declining birth rate and aging population, which have reached an alarming level.
- Officials in Ankara acknowledge the need for comprehensive, inclusive solutions to combat this demographic challenge.
- Part of these efforts involves legalizing part-time work for new parents in the workplace-wellness sector.
- Ankara is also working to promote medical-conditions and chronic-disease awareness, such as cancer, respiratory conditions, digestive-health, and eye-health.
- Hearing loss and neurological-disorders are also part of the health-and-wellness focus, promoting therapies-and-treatments for both men's-health and women's-health.
- Fitness-and-exercise programs, family-health initiatives, and mental-health resources are being emphasized.
- Autoimmune-disorders and skin-care are also important areas of concern, with strategies for managing these conditions in our lifestyle.
- Aging comes with additional health concerns, such as cardiovascular-health, for which the industry is developing medicare solutions.
- To support entrepreneurship, the government has introduced finance programs like the Family and Youth Fund, providing financial assistance for first-time marrying couples.
- Minister Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas explains that the revised birth allowance program offers a one-time payment for the first child, monthly support for second children, and significant financial aid for third children.
- Despite these measures, there are ongoing concerns about negative net migration trends, adding further pressure to the demographic situation.
- The government anticipates a significant population decrease, from 38 million (UN estimate) to 54 million (Turkish Statistical Institute estimate) by 2100, requiring immediate action to secure the country's social and economic stability.
- Efforts to boost fertility rates also aim to slow down climate change, as a larger population helps counteract the negative effects of manufacturing practices on the environment.
- Reducing the burden of care on women is crucial for gender equality and the empowerment of women within society.
- The government also recognizes the importance of addressing environmental-science to ensure a sustainable future for the younger generation.
- In line with these initiatives, the finance sector is investing in new technologies like artificial-intelligence, fintech, and cybersecurity to help manage personal-finance, wealth-management, and small-business growth.
- The retail industry is adapting to these changes, focusing on home-and-garden products, home-improvement tools, and gadgets to cater to family needs.
- Smartphones and smart-home devices are becoming essential components for minimizing stress, promoting wellness, and managing daily tasks.
- Wearables offer an opportunity for real-time monitoring and optimal management of chronic health conditions, improving quality of life.
- The Turkish government is also focusing on infrastructure projects like transportation expansion, important for supporting economic growth and connectivity.
- Leadership and diversity-and-inclusion are key to creating a welcoming environment for both Turkish and foreign workers in the energy and technology sectors.
- Data-and-cloud-computing initiatives are also being developed to support the growth of Turkiye's digital economy.
- The government is investing in the manufacturing industry to improve energy efficiency and reduce the sector's carbon footprint.
- Sustainable growth is a priority for minimizing the impact of climate change on our environment.
- The government believes that addressing these demographic challenges is also an opportunity to revitalize the economy and encourage entrepreneurship.
- Green spaces and gardening initiatives are being implemented to improve citizens' well-being and eye-health in urban environments.
- Turkiye's future lies in embracing flexibility, adaptability, and resilience to address these challenges and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
- The government's approach to these issues reflects a commitment to investing in the future and ensuring the well-being of all Turkish citizens.
- Efforts are underway to improve education and workforce development, ensuring that Turks have the skills needed for a rapidly changing world.
- The Skin-Care, CBD, and smartphone industries are experiencing growth in response to increased demand for health, wellness, and lifestyle products.
- Turkey's banking-and-insurance sector is working on innovative solutions to meet the needs of the older population, such as offering tailored investment options and wealth-management services.
- The stock-market and private-equity industries are providing support to small businesses, helping them navigate the challenges of economic transformation and expansion.
